Spain can cut emissions 74% by 2050 - but needs faster action, DNV report finds
DNV will present national-level analysis on Spain’s energy transition at WindEurope, outlining what the country must do to accelerate decarbonization and meet long-term climate ambitions. The report examines emissions trends, electrification potential, renewable energy deployment, infrastructure needs and the role of carbon capture, according to DNV’s analysis - Spain’s path to decarbonization.
Spain has made progress in reducing its emissions since their peak in 2007, but remains far from its target of a 32 percent reduction relative to 1990 levels set in their National Energy and Climate Plan, having achieved only a 13 percent cut so far. DNV’s analysis highlights that under current trends, energy and process related CO₂ emissions would fall by 74 percent by 2050 compared with 1990, leaving the country short of carbon neutrality.
The report shows that transport is Spain’s largest source of emissions at nearly 120 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2023, with reductions of 46 percent expected by 2050 as electric vehicles and alternative fuels scale. Power sector emissions are projected to decline sharply from 36 million tonnes today to 2 million tonnes in 2050, driven by renewable energy growth. Carbon capture technologies will play a limited but meaningful role in hard to decarbonize sectors such as cement and refining, with around 6 million tonnes captured annually from 2035.
These changes must be driven by policies that provide certainty for investment and the management of energy assets, as well as an electricity market equipped with the infrastructure and control mechanisms necessary to manage a reliable, affordable and secure mix.
Brice Le Gallo, Vice President and Regional Director for Energy Systems in Southern Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America at DNV, said: “Spain has a strong foundation for a faster and deeper energy transition, but closing the gap to achieve the national targets will require decisive action. Electrification of transport, heating and industry must accelerate, while investments in grid capacity, storage and permitting reforms are essential to unlock the next wave of renewable growth. Our analysis shows that renewables can deliver the majority of Spain’s decarbonization needs, provided the supporting infrastructure evolves at the same pace.”
As electricity demand more than doubles by 2050 - driven by transport electrification, heat pumps, industrial switching and the growth of hydrogen production as well as new electro intensive industries such as data centres - Spain’s power grid will require significant expansion and flexibility solutions. Interconnection requirements for data centres and storage devices to keep the grid in control are pivotal for the next decade. DNV’s modelling shows distribution networks in particular will face capacity constraints without accelerated investment. The report also highlights the role of storage technologies, including lithium-ion systems, pumped hydro and emerging vehicle to grid capabilities, in supporting variable solar and wind output.
Social acceptance of renewable energy projects is identified as an increasing risk, with community resistance affecting both supply and demand side infrastructure. The report emphasises the importance of early engagement, transparent communication and fair benefit sharing to build and maintain public support.
Carlos Albero, Market Area Manager, Iberia, Energy Systems at DNV said “DNV concludes that while net zero by 2050 is not achievable under any realistic scenario, Spain can still make major progress if it accelerates deployment of renewables, strengthens market design for revenue stability, speeds up permitting, electrifies end use sectors, and advances carbon capture where feasible.”