Maritime Forecast to 2050

Shipping’s transformation is underway, powered by innovation, collaboration, and purpose.

The 2025 edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 arrives at a pivotal moment for the shipping industry. 

Stakeholders across the maritime value chain should start preparing early and investigate all solutions for finding cost-effective decarbonization strategies that align with the complex regulatory landscape for GHG emissions.

Success will depend on synchronized progress across ships, fuel supply, and port infrastructure - supported by regulatory clarity, and industry-wide collaboration. 

Is the global fleet reaching a fuel transition tipping point?

By 2030, the global fleet will have the capacity to consume over 50 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels (excluding biofuels). With the number of alternative-fuelled vessels in operation set to almost double by 2028, shipping is approaching a fuel transition tipping point – sending a strong demand signal to fuel producers and related industries to speed up their progress.

What are the challenges to achieving large-scale adoption of low-GHG fuels?

By 2030, the global supply of low-GHG fuels is projected to be between 70 and 100 Mtoe per year, with shipping expected to receive only a small portion of this. Even if the industry has enough capacity to consume low-GHG fuels, supply must scale up significantly, at prices competitive with other compliance options. As our shipping industry outlook shows, three main barriers must be overcome to achieve large-scale uptake of low-GHG fuels: technology and safety; demand and costs; and fuel availability.

What role can onboard carbon capture (OCC) play in the maritime decarbonization?

Onboard carbon capture (OCC) can cut bulker, tanker, and container fleet emissions up to 19%, contributing to total emission reductions of up to 9%. Equipping 20 major ports with CO₂ offloading infrastructure and retrofitting a sufficient number of ships with OCC technology could be as effective as using 25 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels per year in reaching the IMO’s 2030 base target.
CO₂ storage capacity is expected to be between 60 and 85 Mt by 2030, up from last year’s estimate of 47 and 67 Mt. However, securing access to storage sites, or finding alternative uses for the capture CO₂ in line with the regulatory framework, is critical for the feasibility of onboard carbon capture solutions.

This could be a breakthrough year for maritime wind energy

Several pilots of wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS) are being tested and moving into commercial operation, potentially building trust and confidence in the technologies and providing the basis for future maritime adoption and expansion.
Wind-assisted propulsion has already delivered annual fuel savings of between 5% and 20% for certain ships. Under given operational conditions, the potential is large, and DNV has verified WAPS reaching peak values of about 30% reduced energy consumption per nautical mile in favourable conditions.

What is the Maritime Forecast to 2050?

The Maritime Forecast to 2050 by DNV is a comprehensive maritime report that provides insights and guidance for the maritime industry on its path to decarbonization. It is part of DNV's Energy Transition Outlook series. 

The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is published annually and has been released regularly since its first edition in 2017. Each edition provides updated insights and recommendations based on the latest developments in the maritime industry, including regulatory changes, developments in alternative fuel supply, and technological and infrastructural advancements, helping stakeholders stay ahead of global maritime trends.

  
Archive of previous editions: