Oil and gas and bioenergy

Oil and gas and bioenergy

Fossil fuels decline in absolute terms after 2030; gas retains a mid-century role, while bioenergy with CCS and synthetic fuels expand to replace them.

• Energy-sector methane emissions 140 → 50 Mt (2024–2060) (-65 %).
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 74
  
  
• By 2060, fossil-fuel methane split: 54% gas, 26% oil, 20% coal.
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 75
  
  
• Aviation: sustainable fuels ≈7 EJ/yr (55% share) by 2060.
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 75
  
  
• Shipping: bio-fuels ≈3 EJ/yr (26%), overtaking fossil (25%).
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 75
  
  
• Bio-power: output +50% to 2060; BECCS rises 3 → 37% of biomass generation.
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 p. 75
  
  
• Energy-sector methane falls ~140 Mt (2024) → ~128 (2030) → ~100 (2040) → ~50 (2060). By mid-century, fossil methane shares are ~54% gas, 26% oil, 20% coal.
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§4, Methane)
  
  
• Aviation: sustainable aviation fuels reach ~7 EJ/yr by 2060, with oil retaining ~55% of sector energy supply.
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§4, Bioenergy in aviation)
  
  
• Shipping: bioenergy reaches ~3 EJ/yr (26%) by 2060, overtaking fossil fuels (~25%); onboard CO₂ capture emerges from the 2040s in parts of the fleet.
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§4.2 + Bioenergy in maritime)
  
  
• Bio-power: electricity from biomass grows >50% to 2060; BECCS rises from ~3% (2030) to ~37% (2060) of biomass generation, providing all net growth in bio-electricity.
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§4, Bio-power)
  
  
• Traditional biomass in buildings declines ~25% globally by 2060, except Sub-Saharan Africa where use increases (from ~6 EJ/yr to ~9 EJ/yr).
  Source: DNV ETO 2025 (§4, Buildings bioenergy)