For the first time DNV has applied its independent Energy Transition Outlook model - incorporating the latest technology trends and policy developments - to Germany. The inaugural German Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report finds that Germany is on track to electrify nearly half of its electricity demand by mid-century, yet it will fall short of its 2045 climate neutrality target. 

DNV projects that alongside renewables growth, energy efficiency improvements will be substantial. By 2050, the energy intensity of the German economy (i.e. energy use per unit of GDP) will almost halve, while energy use per capita will drop by over 50%.

Crucially, energy prices will not place German industry at risk, though energy-intensive sectors will require support to adapt their business models to prioritize energy efficiency, electrification, and CCS.

Access the Energy Transition Outlook Germany to learn more about:

The future energy mix

• Germany's energy mix will shift dramatically. Imports, which currently make up 70% of Germany’s primary energy, will fall to 27% by 2050 making Germany much less energy import dependent. Imported coal and oil will decline by 99% and 79% respectively.
• Moreover, by mid-century natural gas and hydrogen will be equal, with one-third of the hydrogen produced domestically.

The CO₂ emissions

• While Germany is making major progress in reshaping its energy landscape, emissions are forecast to drop by 89% by 2045 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, leaving policymakers with a challenge to plug the remaining gap.

Electrification

• The study found that by 2050, 46% of Germany’s energy demand will be electrified - more than double today’s 19%. 
• The electrification is driven by declining cost of new technologies such as batteries and heat pumps and policy drivers such as carbon price. Electricity production is expected to double from today to reach 1,000 TWh by 2050 - 90% of which will be renewable.