Battery energy storage systems (BESS) growth: Modelling battery hazards with confidence
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) have emerged as a key technology in the global energy transition and in meeting future energy demands. However, like all new technologies, BESS comes with inherent risks.
BESS safety management
Global energy systems are undergoing a profound transformation. Electricity demand is projected to rise sharply as transport, industry and heating electrify, while solar and wind power continue their rapid expansion. By 2040, renewables are forecast to supply more than 50% of global electricity. This transition depends on a parallel and dramatic increase in energy storage. Grid-connected storage capacity is forecast to grow more than twenty-five-fold by 2060, making the battery energy storage system a central pillar of modern energy infrastructure. By providing flexibility, frequency control and reserve capacity, BESS installations enable high renewable penetration and stable power systems.
However, BESS installations are not without risk. Faults within lithium-ion cells can develop into serious incidents with potential consequences for people, property and the environment. Several well-documented events in recent years have highlighted this potential. As deployment accelerates, the understanding and management of BESS safety issues is critical for developers, operators, authorities and emergency services.
Understanding lithium-ion battery hazards
Unlike traditional energy infrastructure, which is often located in remote industrial areas, BESS facilities are increasingly sited near urban developments, industrial clusters and critical infrastructure. This proximity significantly increases the potential consequences for people, property and the environment in case of an incident.
Lithium-ion batteries can degrade when exposed to electrical, thermal or mechanical abuse, creating hazards in the local environment and the potential for escalation into major events. The first stage of degradation is off-gassing, in which one or more damaged cells in a battery module release flammable and potentially toxic vapours. Continued degradation can escalate to thermal runaway, a self-sustaining reaction producing intense heat and rapid venting of gases, potentially triggering failures in neighbouring cells and modules.
The hazards presented by this process are strongly influenced by the environment in which the battery system is located and the timing of any ignition. Early ignition typically results in fire and smoke, with the smoke carrying any toxic components generated during cell breakdown, such as hydrogen fluoride. If ignition is delayed, the emitted gases may disperse externally where the release is open to the atmosphere or accumulate as a flammable cloud if released in an enclosure. In the latter case, delayed ignition can lead to an explosion, creating new pathways for fire, gas and smoke to escape (such as through doors or deflagration panels) and potentially damaging adjacent battery modules, driving further escalation.
The hazards associated with BESS have clear parallels with those in traditional process industries. The management of fire, explosion and the release of flammable and toxic gases has long been standard practice in sectors such as oil and gas, chemicals and power generation. Many established risk management approaches can therefore be adapted for BESS facilities.
Consequence modelling for BESS safety
The physical effects of BESS failure scenarios can be simulated using consequence modelling software to predict the severity and extent of an event. This enables quantitative predictions to support decision-making throughout the full lifecycle of a BESS facility, from concept design to operation and emergency planning.
DNV provides a comprehensive and validated suite of software solutions – Phast™, KFX™ and EXSIM – that have been at the forefront of consequence modelling in oil and gas and other high hazard industries for many years. Given the parallels with BESS hazards, these software solutions can be applied to BESS facilities, supporting consequence predictions appropriate to the problem at hand. This may entail rapid screening estimates using empirical models or detailed engineering analysis using computational fluid dynamics.
Software for BESS facilities
Phast, KFX and EXSIM are advanced software solutions, and while their application to BESS hazards may be straightforward for experienced users, their application to new areas of study may be more challenging for less experienced users. To lower that barrier, DNV now provides native support for BESS applications within Phast Online. Phast Online is a fully web-based modelling service. Several models from the Phast desktop solution are available as apps in Phast Online, requiring only a minimal set of inputs. The new 'Battery hazard' app in Phast Online, available soon, allows predictions of toxic hazard distances from off-gassing and the estimation of smoke from fires, even with minimal input data. Radiation modelling from fires will be included in the next phase of development.
For more complex scenarios, DNV offers advanced modelling capability through KFX and EXSIM. KFX provides high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of fire, smoke and gas dispersion in confined and ventilated spaces, supporting the assessment of mitigation measures, visibility on escape routes and emergency access conditions. EXSIM enables detailed simulation of explosions in complex geometries, allowing blast loads, container failure modes and pressure relief performance to be evaluated.
DNV's software solutions support full BESS value chain
DNV’s software solutions provide a consistent technical basis for design review, permitting and emergency planning across the industry.
Developers can identify receptors at risk, evaluate site layout and separation distances, and understand how wind and terrain shape the hazard footprint.
Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) can assess unit-to-unit propagation, validate suppression and ventilation system performance, and optimize module design.
Authorities and first responders can define safe approach distances, plan emergency response strategies, and estimate resource requirements for controlling an incident.
A safe path forward for lithium-ion-based battery installations
As battery energy storage systems become a cornerstone of the energy transition, robust safety design is essential to protect people, assets and public confidence. By grounding decisions in validated scientific consequence modelling rather than assumptions, DNV enables organizations to design, permit and operate lithium-ion-based battery installations with confidence, managing the risks of fire, explosion and the release of toxic gases throughout the full lifecycle of a facility.
Contact us to request a demo or to find out more about DNV’s solutions for battery energy storage systems.
