Pipeline risk models are a foundational part of the assessment of operational pipeline risk. In recent years and due to communications received from both PHMSA and regulatory bodies, a trend has developed in the oil and gas industry in that the simple index models that people once relied on for years are no longer providing enough information and data on how we should be using risk today.
Organizations are striving to go beyond just ranking their lines and looking for more of understanding of the true risks to distribution lines and how we can maintain these. In recent years, Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), has emerged as an increasingly popular analysis tool especially during the last decade. Completely quantitative, in its simplest form, PRA is a group of techniques that incorporate variability and uncertainty into risk assessments.
DNV’s PRA model (now available in our pipeline integrity management software solution, Synergi Pipeline) provides this tool – providing distribution companies a comprehensive understanding of the different risks across your system, both distinctly at an individual threat level as well as how they interact with each other. PRA provides the ability for organizations to hone in on the specifics that are driving those risks which can then help you create a targeted mitigation strategy. PRA models inherently address the uncertainty associated with missing data, making them the ideal choice for use with distribution pipelines where incomplete data sets and records is common.
By watching this webinar, you will gain a deeper understanding of the methodology/theory behind a distribution based Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) model.
- Why PRA?
- What makes a risk model probabilistic?
- Advantages of a probabilistic risk model over a relative risk model
- How does this fit into an Enterprise Risk Management System?
- High level framework of DNV’s probabilistic model
- Assets included the DIMP PRA
- How are leaks incorporated into the risk model?
- Overview of Probability of Failure and Consequence calculations