The Energy Transition Outlook finds that the net effect of energy security is decreasing emissions. Global emissions are forecast to be 1-2% lower per year due to the implementation of energy security policy. Nuclear power, for example, will account for 9% of electricity supply in 2060. Without energy security policies, nuclear power would have been one third lower. In Europe, emissions are forecast to be 9% lower in 2050 due to energy security as it pivots away from imported fossil fuels.
Other key findings from this year’s report include:
- AI is emerging as a significant energy consumer, but it will only consume 3% of global electricity in 2040. Data centre energy use will quintuple to 2040, equalling 5% of all global electricity – 3% of this is for AI and 2% for general purpose data centres. There are large regional variations; in North America (the US and Canada) the 2040 share is 16% of all electricity, with 12% being AI.
- Global CO2 emissions will reduce by 43% from today to 2050 – and is expected to reach net zero after 2090. The carbon budget for 1.5°C is exhausted in 2029 and the budget for 2°C in 2052. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C without a temporary overshoot is no longer possible.
- Electricity is growing and greening at a high pace. Global electricity generation is projected to increase by 120% from now until 2060, doubling from a 21% share of total energy demand today to 43% in 2060. During 2025 we have passed the milestone of 50 million BEVs . Global solar PV capacity is projected to reach over 3000GW this year, with China having installed more than twice as much capacity as Europe, the next largest installer.
- The plunging costs of solar panels and batteries have made behind-the-meter (BTM) solutions attractive for a range of households and business. BTM will represent 30% of all solar and 13% of all power generated by 2060.
“In several sectors, technology progress and cost reduction are driving the energy transition forward, but in harder to decarbonize sectors, much more policy help is needed. While geopolitical tensions and national priorities add complexity, the global direction of the energy transition remains clear,” added Eriksen.
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