COP30 - How did the world score on this year's exam paper?

The simple answer is average. But we need to dig deeper beyond the final text.

Themes and objectives 

The Brazilian Presidency prioritized three objectives: 

  • Restoring and strengthening multilateralism and trust in the climate change regime
  • Connecting climate policy with people's everyday realities
  • Focusing relentlessly on implementation and accelerating action

We heard in the opening session when COP30 President Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago said, “We are gathered here to try to change things”.  

Challenges of climate change

The 194 countries present at COP30 reached an agreement, or “Global mutirão” (that is, uniting humanity in a global mobilization against climate change). But, meaningful progress was difficult, as other countries felt emboldened to block or delay items. 

We face a threefold challenge on climate: the first is an ongoing issue, while the second two are newer:  

  1. Challenges of multilateralism. By its nature, multilateralism requires parties to compromise. To understand the situations all face. This is true no matter the global issue at play, whether related to effective healthcare, poverty alleviation, human rights, or climate change. As the EU Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, Wopke Hoekstra, said at Politico today, “there are limiting parameters to success”, in such negotiations. 
  2. Geopolitics in 2025. We have seen a prioritization of national interests over the global good. There has been intense competition for energy, components and critical materials. Concerns around trade, defence, and affordability have shifted the focus away from climate in many countries.
  3. Politicization of climate. But, climate, perhaps more so than other challenges the world faces, seems to have become more politicized. And it is, in some quarters, portrayed as an ideological issue, not the scientific reality it is. 

These forces, among others, have started to reframe how countries are thinking about climate action. That impacts negotiations. And so, after two weeks, we had an agreement that was softer than many would like, and that is not getting us to the goals we set. For example, on mitigation, the updated NDCs indicate how far we are from achieving net zero. 

What did countries formally agree?

A few of the key textual outcomes included:

  • 1.5°C. Recognition that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global GHG emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 (versus 2019) and reaching net zero by 2050.
  • Financing. Mobilized a commitment of $300 billion/year for developing nations by 2035. And a recommitted to the broader goal of $1.3 trillion/year from public and private sources over the same period.
  • Rights of all peoples. Acknowledged that climate change is a common concern of humankind and that Parties should respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment, the right to health.
  • Multilateralism. Underlined the critical role of multilateralism based on United Nations values and principles, including in the context of the implementation of the Convention and the Paris Agreement, and the importance of international cooperation for addressing global issues.
  • Climate disinformation. Acknowledged for the first time the need to tackle disinformation, pledging to promote information integrity and counter narratives that undermine science-based action.

There was nothing on fossil fuels, with petro-states perhaps feeling emboldened by the absence of the US at these negotiations. But, more than 90 countries backed the idea of a roadmap for the transition. 

The rise of the side agreements

Over the past few COPs, we have seen an acceleration of countries that, whilst unable to secure certain texts in the final joint declaration, are forming coalitions of the willing across several topics. This year, we saw:

  • Led by Colombia, over 80 countries backed a proposal for a formal roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. Colombia and the Netherlands will co-host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in April 2026.
  • The "Tropical Forests Forever Fund" included 53 participating countries, including Brazil, Indonesia, Norway, Germany, and France, along with philanthropic organizations like the Minderoo Foundation. It will offer a blended finance mechanism of USD 125 billion from both public and private sectors.
  • Over 20 countries have signed the Declaration on Climate Change Information Integrity, including Brazil, Canada, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, and Uruguay. 

Summary

  • Forward movements. We do see positive, iterative shifts as COPs move from one year to the next. They may not always be as exciting as Paris was, but they keep the global trajectory inching forward. There will always be trailblazers and laggards, but we must always bear in mind, as Elif Gökçe Öz, Environmental Counsellor, Permanent Delegation of Türkiye to the EU commented, that countries come from very different starting points.
  • The ambitious. We saw the drive from many countries to go beyond the “average” and look for faster change through the establishment of declarations and coalitions. 
  • Private sector in action. We continue to see the private sector invest in climate mitigation. In 2025, we expect total investment (public and private) in renewables and clean technology to hit USD 2 trillion, double that in fossil fuels.
  • COP31. This will be a partnership, whereby the event and Presidency sits with Turkey, while the negotiations will be led by Australia, could bring interesting shifts, likely highlighting the urgent action needed in the Pacific islands, for example. 

Getting to any consensus that advances our ambitions and actions is a victory. That is not to say we should not aim higher. We must. And we will.