Høvik, Norway, 8 December 2023 – DNV, the risk management and assurance company, has published a Seafood Forecast that aims to untangle the complexities in seafood value chains and provide an objective view of developments to mid-century. This global forecast of the seafood industry covers both marine capture fisheries and marine aquaculture, including value chain components such as feed and global seafood trade.
The predictions are based on a systemic and balanced view of seafood markets, taking into consideration the main drivers of seafood consumption, including the causal relationships in seafood supply chains and competition among alternative protein sources. Through this approach, the forecast sheds light on many of the key questions stakeholders across the seafood value chain are asking themselves, such
- What will be the role of seafood in global food demand?
- How will marine aquaculture develop to meet seafood demand?
- What will drive change in seafood trade patterns to 2050?
- What will be the main sources of feed for marine aquaculture?
The forecast reveals that seafood demand is on the rise, growing faster than the demand for other protein sources in most regions. It predicts a doubling of marine aquaculture, and a tripling of finfish production, whereas global fisheries output remains stagnant. An analysis of socio-economic drivers shows that seafood trade patterns will change, mainly driven by increasing supply-demand imbalances. At the same time, feed supplies will diversify to reduce the aquaculture industry’s dependence on marine and agriculture-based ingredients.
“Our aim for this report has been to serve as input towards greater transparency as well as understanding of the development of seafood in the Blue Economy at both the global and regional scale,” says Bente Pretlove, DNV Programme Director, Ocean Space.
The forecast will be presented at the COP28 event Blue Foods for Sustainable Food Systems, and both the full report and the executive summary can be downloaded free of charge.
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