Who is going to buy green hydrogen?

Knowing who will purchase renewable (green) hydrogen is the central challenge for the sector. There is a need to find large-scale customers so that production projects can go ahead, transportation infrastructure can be built, and economies of scale and technological improvements can bring down the cost of production dramatically. But without reliable offtake, even projects that can secure subsidies will struggle. And it’s therefore no surprise that many developments are being delayed and cancelled.

So where is the demand going to come from? There are three key areas to be more or less optimistic about:

1. Maritime
   

   The key International Maritime Organization meeting is coming up in October, and should that ratify the ambitious 2050 net zero target announced in April, it will provide a substantial impetus for renewable  maritime fuels. While biofuels are likely to be cheaper than renewable  hydrogen-based derivative fuels, there is only so much sustainable bioenergy feedstock available. So, we expect that the maritime sector will also need to adopt synthetic fuels, and we see a growing order book for methanol-fueled ships, that could use both bio- and e-methanol in the future. 
   
   
2. Aviation
   Sustainable aviation fuel targets in the EU really ramp up in the 2030s, with around a third of aviation fuel needing to be sustainable by 2040. Within this mandate, 10% of the total EU aviation fuel use will need to be synthetic by 2040, equating to several million tonnes of synthetic kerosene. 
   
   
3. Refineries
   The easiest way to adopt hydrogen in surface transport is to blend renewable  hydrogen in existing refineries, to replace grey hydrogen. This is allowed under the EU’s REDIII targets and also in national legislation in various member states. With some project developers owning both the electrolyzers and the refinery, the overall project risks are reduced. It’s no accident that some of the largest EU renewable hydrogen projects to date have refinery offtake.

By contrast, we see very limited demand for hydrogen in road and rail, where batteries are winning out. And with the well-known competitiveness challenges for European heavy industry, hydrogen uptake is going to take time – even with renewable hydrogen subsidies secured, some European steel plants will be sticking to natural gas for now. 

As DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook makes clear, net zero cannot be achieved without hydrogen and other sustainable fuels. Fortunately, there is a considerable pipeline of large projects, but creating a genuine hydrogen ecosystem is a tall order at present. 

Learn more about hydrogen and renewable fuels at this event

Join DNV for a 1-hour event with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Danske Bank and Green Giraffe on 25 September – in Copenhagen or via live stream – to discuss these crucial challenges. The next decade will be pivotal, a make-or-break period for hydrogen and green fuels. More info here.

9/5/2025 9:11:00 AM