About the Energy Transition Outlook
DNV’s series of Energy Transition Outlook reports are powered by a transparent, science-based model of the world’s energy system.
Our guiding principles
- Our best estimate, not the future we want
- A single forecast, not scenarios
- Long-term dynamics, not short-term imbalances
- Continued development of proven technology, not uncertain breakthroughs
- Main policy trends included; caution on untested commitments
- Behavioural changes: some assumptions made, e.g. linked to a changing environment
What is the Energy Transition Outlook Model?
The Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) Model is DNV’s independent simulation tool for forecasting how global energy systems will evolve through to 2060. Built on system dynamics principles, it captures the complex interactions between energy demand, supply, technology, policy, and behaviour across sectors and regions.
The ETO Model is designed to help decision-makers understand long-term energy trends and make informed choices. It provides actionable insights into the pace and nature of the transition, highlighting risks and opportunities across industries, from transport and manufacturing to power and policy.
Key features of the ETO Model
- Granular and data-driven: Over 100,000 data points sourced from IEA, UN Comtrade, GlobalData, and more.
- Expert-led: Developed by a dedicated team of researchers with input from over 150 DNV experts and external contributors.
- Sensitivity-tested: Regular analyses assess how key inputs (GDP growth rates, technological learning curves) affect outputs.
- Transparent and adaptable: Regularly updated to reflect the latest data and market trends, providing stakeholders accurate and relevant insights into the pace and nature of the energy transition.
- Single best-estimate forecast: Unlike scenario-based approaches, the ETO Model delivers one most-likely trajectory grounded in real-world data, inertia, and feedback loops. It’s designed to reflect long-term dynamics, not short-term market noise.