Power and renewables

Impact of outages on the electricity market

Data analytics of flow-based market coupling data to analyze transmission capacity and market prices during outages.

European Transmission System Operator (TSO)

The TSO owns the high voltage network infrastructures. To maintain and reinforce its network, the TSO has to plan and execute outages on the existing network. These outages can have a significant impact on the market in some situations as they limit the capacity to import and transport electricity.

Next to the available network infrastructure, aspects like increased decentralized generation and renewable energy sources have an impact on market welfare and maximum import capacity. In order to limit the impact on the market as much as possible, the TSO is seeking for indications about these situations and is interested to investigate whether there are parameters indicating the best moments to plan outages in the future.

With the introduction of Central West-European flow-based market coupling in 2015, a large dataset has become available on day-ahead forecasting of energy flows on the various critical branches and interconnections. DNV has analyzed flow-based market coupling data from the CWE area (350 GB of data) looking for factors and trends impacting the TSOs transmission capacity and market prices during past outages. Aspects that were considered included renewable infeed, temperature, week/weekend, day/night, seasons and outages. The market output covers maximum import, prices and social welfare.  In a second phase of the project, a python-based visualization tool was developed to allow the TSO to better understand the possible market impact of future planned outages.

The data analysis and the visualization tool help the TSO by providing estimations to limit the market impact of future planned outages.