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Market and generation modeling

All over the world power markets are in the process of privatization and liberalization, whilst the advance of renewable energy technologies and decentralized generation create further challenges. Information and knowledge of the market environment is becoming a strategic asset.

Hence, a view of future market prices is essential for shaping a market participant’s actions and decisions to outperform competitors. Network operators need to model and assess future load flows across their grid and understand the impact that evolving generation mix and load patterns may have on system control.

Should I invest in new power plants?
A new power plant requires a thorough assessment of the dynamics of generation while operating in a market environment. Market rules, physical constraints, the structure of contracts for both fuel and power sales and many other issues require careful analysis in a complex environment.

How can I make the most of my generation portfolio?
Analyzing the performance of a single power plant is one thing but evaluating the performance of a generation portfolio is another. Sound decisions require a detailed evaluation of power plant operation and trading opportunities. DNV has access to key information and expert knowledge to assist you in taking commercially informed decisions. In depth knowledge of energy markets and sophisticated tools allows us to simulate the market and the behavior of players to forecast future market prices, optimize your portfolio operation and maximize returns from your assets.

What impact will future changes have on the grid?
The rapid growth of renewable and decentralized generators or the potential transition towards electric vehicles creates new challenges for system and network operators. Besides changes to the regional distribution of gas and power flows, these developments may also influence reserve provision and frequency control, gas storage and capacity, for instance as a result of minimum load problems, replacement of flexible generation or an increasing volatility of residual load. Network operators across the world are therefore relying on DNV to forecast possible changes and analyze the impact on system and network operation.

Comprehensive modeling and simulation capabilities
Our advisory services are technically supported by leading-edge commercial simulation models as well a suite of proprietary models developed by DNV itself. These models can be linked to a number of other tools available to our experts, like PSS/E, Power Factory and others for network modeling and detailed system studies.

  • State-of-the-art unit commitment models enable DNV to deliver detailed modeling of power markets, including reserve provision, with advanced unit commitment and interchange logics for system studies with multiple market areas and real time dispatch. DNV can analyze electricity prices and costs for both individual areas and regional systems consisting of multiple market areas, including different stages of market integration and competition.
  • Our proprietary tool Symbad allows for market concentration analysis, quantitative assessments of strategic behavior, price forecasting and deviation from perfectly competitive pricing (mark-ups).
  • DNV’s own tool KREMLIN provides for a powerful combination of market and system modeling in the time frame from a few hours in advance to real time, thereby bridging the gap between common market simulation models and other tools used for technical analysis. KREMLIN combines a detailed simulation of both conventional and renewable generators as well as storage facilities with a realistic representation of the grid. Besides market prices and volumes, it also delivers information on plant emissions, system frequency and regulation quality.