Energy Transition Outlook

An independent view of the “most likely” energy future through to 2050

DNV’s annual Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report presents an independent view of the “most likely” energy future, based on DNV’s in-house model of global energy systems through to 2050.

Several ongoing global transitions, not least decarbonization, and digitalization, are significantly affecting energy systems. Behind these transitions are technology advances and intensified cost competition. They are also triggered by shifting investment flows as well as government actions to tackle urgent environmental and climate risks and achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreement. 

As a leading global independent energy expert, DNV is uniquely placed to help stakeholders navigate these transitions, and the intention behind the annual Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) is to be a trusted voice that cuts through complex (and often conflicting and interest-ridden) projections of the technical, regulatory and economic dynamics that drive change in the energy landscape. 

According to Carbon Tracker, DNV’s ETO is widely regarded as the go-to source for independent analysis of the energy transition. It has also gained traction in the finance community, where according to Nick Stansbury of Legal & General, “The energy transition is a first order issue for long term investors, and the DNV’s ETO is one of the leading independent studies that helps us to understand how it is likely to evolve, and what it will mean for capital markets.” 

Strategy-forming tool for decision makers 

Our annual Outlook covers the period through to 2050 and forecasts the energy transition globally and in 10 world regions. 

In contrast to scenario-based outlooks, we present a single 'best estimate' forecast of the energy future, with sensitivities discussed in relation to our key conclusions. Our analysis includes policy factors like subsidies, carbon pricing, pollution interventions and energy-efficiency standards. Some behavioural change is also accounted for, largely in relation to a changing environment. 

Our model also simulates the interactions over time of the consumers of energy and all sources of supply, as well as the use and exchange of energy between and within world regions. The selection of energy sources is driven algorithmically based on modelled costs, and in some cases, prices. 

The benefits 

The ETO gives stakeholders independent, trustworthy insight into proven technology developments, cost learning rates, policy trends and analysis and opportunities within the energy transition. 

DNV also produces three companion reports on the transition and the long-term implications for the renewables and power industry, oil and gas industry and the maritime industry, addressing each sector’s dynamics as a result of our main global forecast report. 

DNV Group President and CEO Remi Eriksen says that, “At a time when we are trying to recover from the ongoing pandemic as individuals and as communities, we cannot afford to make costly mistakes. The 2020 edition of our Outlook is needed now more than ever to shine a light on a transition that represents the greatest source of risk, and opportunity, in our business environment.” 


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