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China’s energy transition outlook

In this report on China’s energy transition – one of the most detailed English language analyses yet available, and part of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook series - we explore how fast China will reduce emissions and transition to an energy system dominated by solar and wind - and what it means for the rest of the world.

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Here are some selected highlights: 

  • China is responsible for 33% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions today, but this will reduce to 22% by 2050, a reduction in annual emissions of 8 GtCO2 (three times the size of Europe’s decarbonization over the same period)
  • China’s power mix shifts from 30% renewable today to 88% by 2050 
  • Solar makes up 5% of power generation in China today – this will rise to 38% by 2050 
  • Oil consumption only halves by 2050 from its 2027 peak, while natural gas peaks in the 2030s before returning to today’s levels by mid-century
  • China will further extend its position as the world’s green energy leader with unrivalled build-out and export of renewable technology