From energy addition to energy transition

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A central finding of the Energy Transition Outlook 2025 is that the world is moving from an age of energy addition to an age of energy transition. 

For most of modern history, new energy sources were added to the energy system rather than replacing existing ones. Coal was added to biomass, oil to coal, and natural gas to both. As economies expanded and living standards improved, energy demand grew fast enough to accommodate new sources without forcing older ones into decline. 

This pattern has continued into the renewable era. Despite rapid growth in solar, wind, and other low-carbon technologies, fossil fuels still provide around 80% of global energy. Their persistence reflects more than historical momentum. Fossil fuels are energy-dense, easily transported, relatively inexpensive to produce, and supported by extensive infrastructure built over more than a century. In sectors such as heavy industry, transport, and heating, they remain difficult to replace. 

Renewables face challenges of their own. Solar and wind resources are abundant and increasingly inexpensive, but generation remains variable. Expanding grids, storage, transmission networks, and demand flexibility requires significant investment and time. Renewable energy systems also require more land and infrastructure than conventional fuels. As a result, renewable deployment has grown rapidly but, until recently, not at a scale sufficient to displace large volumes of fossil fuel use. 

Our forecast suggests that a new phase has begun. Growing energy security concerns and climate policies, combined with continued declines in the cost of solar, wind, and batteries, are enabling non-fossil technologies to compete directly with fossil fuels across a growing range of applications. 

Clean energy is no longer meeting only incremental growth in demand. It is also capturing market share from fossil fuels. This marks a fundamental change in the energy system. Fossil fuels do not disappear. In our forecast, they still account for more than a third of global energy use in 2060. However, they enter a period of structural decline, while non-fossil energy expands to meet both new demand and a growing share of existing demand.