The race to electrify

China is electrifying at a much faster rate than any other region. Between 2000 and 2018, the electricity share in China’s energy mix doubled from 11% to 22%. We forecast another doubling by 2043. No other region will match this pace of growth my mid-century. In absolute values, Chinese electricity has grown over 8-fold from 2000 to 2025.  

Why is China so far ahead? 

For China, electrification is existential – it enables independence and stability in the face of crises, like the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and underpins its industrial strategy. Unlike other regions that treat the energy transition primarily as an environmental obligation, China is also wielding electrification as a tool for geopolitical advantage. 

Electricity makes China more energy secure, as it produces the coal, renewables, and nuclear used to generate it. The share of non-fossil electricity generation is around 42% today, and we expect this to grow to over 80% by 2040 and 99% by 2060.

China’s rapid electrification is more than a domestic milestone; it creates a continuous cycle where a strong local market funds and scales its green manufacturing, translating domestic energy initiatives into broader global competitiveness. Electricity is the most efficient way to use energy, so this curbs China’s energy demand growth. We expect that China’s final energy demand will peak by 2031, by which time electricity will grow 25% from today. 

Of the four most electrified regions, China’s electricity demand grows the most to 2035. Unlike Europe, North America, and the OECD Pacific, we expect demand in manufacturing as the core growth sector in China.  

The runners-up and laggards 

• Driven by an acute need to reduce reliance on imported fuels, Europe secures a solid second place in the race for energy independence, with a growth spurt towards the end of our forecast period reflecting slow but determined progress in the build out of Europe’s grid. 

• In third place is ‘OECD Pacific’ (mainly Japan, South Korea, and Australia), which for more than two decades prior to 2022 held the mantle as the world’s most-electrified region. 

• North America, shielded by its own domestic fossil fuel resources, lacks the same immediate urgency and comes in a distant fourth. Given the ambitions of the region to dominate the AI race, the slow rate of electrification in the short term is likely to lead to a power crunch and rising prices – unrelieved by reliance on fossil-fired generation. 

• Trailing at the bottom of the chart, regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and North East Eurasia remain deeply anchored to legacy energy structures due to infrastructure deficits or fossil-dependent economies.  

For further analysis, download our Energy Transition Outlook 2025 report, or deep dive into the forecast for the Greater China region.