Energy Transition Outlook 2023Download the report
2023 is the half-way mark between the ground-breaking agreement in Paris in 2015 and the important milestone that is 2030. But global energy-related emissions are still rising and will only peak in 2024, according to DNV’s latest Energy Transition Outlook forecast.
To limit warming to 1.5 degrees - the main goal of the Paris Agreement – we must deploy clean technologies and decarbonize much faster than we have ever done before and in all parts of the world.
Change is happening
Through to 2050, the world will see significant changes as decarbonization and electrification define the energy transition.
- Non-fossil sources will constitute 52% of the energy mix by 2050, a sharp increase from the 20% they represent today.
- Wind electricity production will grow 10-fold between 2022 and mid-century, and solar will grow 17-fold.
- Shipping is set for a faster transition due to the IMO’s ambitious new decarbonization strategy and the industry’s inclusion in the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme.
- Alongside renewables, a ‘race to the top’ among the advanced economies will drive learning benefits for other decarbonization technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage technologies.
- Climate change and extreme weather events are impacting food security and food supply chains. We urgently need to transform the global food system into a more resilient and sustainable one, reducing pressure on our ecosystems and ensuring it stays within safe planetary limits. Seafood will play an important role in this transition, reducing the carbon footprint and relieving the pressure on land use change and freshwater consumption.
Much remains to be done
CO2 emissions will be just 4% lower than today in 2030, and 46% lower by 2050, according to our Energy Transition Outlook forecast. This is far from a net zero result by mid-century, even though a massive amount of fossil fuels will be replaced by clean energy in the coming decades.
At COP28 this year, the global stocktake will give countries and other stakeholders a clearer picture of where they are collectively making progress toward meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, and where there are still gaps.
DNV at COP28
DNV is collaborating with its customers, with policymakers, and with sector associations and other third-sector players to overcome bottlenecks and create bridges to a more sustainable world. We do this in every industry we serve: from energy to shipping, food & beverage to manufacturing. We are also a member of the Global Renewables Alliance.
DNV is part of the Norwegian business delegation to COP28, which will showcase the importance of collaboration in the energy transition. The Norwegian Pavilion at COP will host a series of events to discuss how business can accelerate the energy transition, with contributions from a range of DNV experts.