After the hype: What is the impact of e-business? How do we open up new markets and introduce new products in these turbulent times? What is your own future role in this quickly changing society?

Exploring the future
These complex questions and their consequences ask for future scenarios. Anticipating on more possible futures, you can reduce the risk of important decisions. Moreover, scenario planning is a powerful instrument to develop a coherent image of trends in for example mergers and globalisation, in which potential opportunities and threats can be detected in time. It is not surprising that scenario planning is playing an ever increasing role within successful organisations.

Scenario planning
This 4-day Master Class focuses the attention on the principles of the development (building, experiencing) as well as the use of scenarios (communication, embedding). By means of various examples and exercises, derived from our own consultancy practice, we will go into all phases of development and use of scenarios.

The Programme
Day 1: Methods and uses for scenario planning
With help of an example we will go into methods and concepts of scenario planning. We will discuss the use of scenario planning for defining corporate strategy, exploration of opportunities, and risk management. In which situation is scenario planning a good tool and which problems does it solve? And which steps do we have to take in the scenario planning process?

Day 2: Analysing trends and selecting axes
By discussing several practical cases, we shall look into 3 approaches for trend analyses. Using the most important brainstorm and analysis techniques, the participants examine the different approaches. The day concludes with a first introduction to the selection of axes. To get the most out of the training, we ask the delegates to do a little homework with regard to the selection of scenario axes and the definition of scenarios.

Day 3: Building of scenarios
We will discuss the results of the homework. After that we will work in small groups, building scenarios and elaborating on the scenarios in scripts.

Day 4: Implementing scenario planning
The central theme of the first part of the day will consist of generating andtesting strategic choices with scenarios. The second half of the day we will go into the critical success factors and the do’s and don’ts of scenario planning. We will talk about how to enthuse people and how to embed the process and products of scenario thinking. As a group activity, insights are translated to a global plan for scenario planning in your organisation.

Learning goals

• Recognition of pitfalls and how to avoid them
• Knowledge of design of various phases in scenario planning and knowledge of which working methods to choose
• Ability in judging when and how scenario planning can be used
• Knowing which are the success factors that make scenario planning effective