Improving production efficiently, safely and responsibly. All existing assets and future developments must increase performance and reduce costs. Asset owners seek more effective methods for managing their assets. Safeti Performance Forecasting enables customers to analyse and improve the production efficiency of assets, safely and responsibly.

The Performance Forecasting concept and methodology has been developed to quantify the expected asset performance in terms of through-life production efficiency, maintenance requirements and operating costs. This powerful tool provides users with quantitative figures on an asset’s level of performance and how it will change over its life cycle. This quantitative picture of performance is vital to support the project decision process.

Since the technology was introduced 25 years ago, it has been tailored to:

• The upstream oil and gas industry with Maros

• The downstream sector (refining, chemicals and petrochemicals) with Taro.

Predicting the performance of an upstream or downstream asset is achieved by modelling it, taking into account all factors that can potentially impact the production from that particular asset. This approach is based on Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) modelling but extended to include operational strategies, logistics and costs. Because parameters can be easily changed in the model, the methodology is often used to analyse various design options and consequently to gain knowledge of the optimum asset configuration.

Both Maros and Taro use an ‘eventdriven’ algorithm to create life cycle scenarios of the system under investigation, accounting for its reliability, maintainability and operating policies. The simulator contains a bespoke algorithm to analyse how the system performs for each scenario. The virtual plant model formed from the model data moves from one distinct state to another, governed by the occurrence of a sequence of events until the simulated time exceeds the specified design life of the system being modelled. The Safeti Performance Forecasting tools contain a very efficient and ‘intelligent’ event management algorithm carrying out appropriate actions in accordance with the event sequences.

A distinct advantage of using performance simulators is that the user gets a true ‘feel’ for the system being simulated, and learns quickly about its good and bad points. These may relate to the design itself or its associated operations. Such insight helps the user improve the system. Once a basic model is set up, design changes can be very quickly assessed.

By including effects of often complex and interrelated parameters, a Safeti Performance Forecasting analysis enables the user to build a quantitative picture of performance as outlined

The proverbial question “What happens if?” can be answered. By studying performance results and how they respond to altering specific parameters in the design or its logistics, it is possible to optimise the system with respect to given constraints.

Maros has now become one of the leading advanced RAM simulation tools. The simulation technique is well established in the upstream sector, and used by all major operators as part of newbuilding design or in evaluating existing mature assets. A Maros analysis can be performed at three stages of the asset life cycle – feasibility, design, and operation.

There are a number of differences between the two products driven by the market needs. For example, Maros has specific upstream features such as the ability to define well profiles and defined oil, water and gas handling rules. Maros is characterized by converging flows into a single branch, which differs significantly from Taro where different products with different yields are produced and can be stored or re-combined in various ways. Storage level management, flow routing with feed prioritization, and logistics are all important features of Taro, which is designed to capture the complexity of refineries, chemical and petrochemical plants. Having benefited from numerous developments in recent years, Taro is now a mature product with the ability to handle some bulk transport and logistics tasks.

However, the next challenge for DNV Software is to address emerging market needs for more complete integrated security of supply software. This has been identified as an area of growth (e.g. LNG supply), and DNV Software is well positioned to develop a new additional application which will combine most of the upstream capabilities of Maros with the capabilities of Taro. The new application will also receive substantial enhancements in the area of transport and logistics. There is currently no single supply chain tool available on the market; such an innovation will give DNV Software and its customers a leading edge when moving into the integrated security of the supply analysis market.