Increased personal income levels and significant investments in infrastructure will result in about 800 million new PC users in the so-called BRIC-countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – according to DNV’s Technology Outlook 2015.

“Through Technology Outlook 2015 DNV’s customers will get an indication of how global trends will affect "our" industries in the years leading up to 2015,” says Elisabeth Harstad, Managing Director of DNV Research and Innovation.

"Our wish and hope is that Technology Outlook 2015 will be used actively to transfer expertise and competence in discussions with customers," says DNV’s project manager Thomas Mestl.

The main consequences of this are:

1. 800 million more participants in the Internet information space, which will affect communication, information flow and democracy

2. 800 million new potential customers for Internet and mobile phone providers

3. 800 million PCs will become waste sooner or later …

In year 2015 it can be expected that a standard PC will not only be about 30 times more powerful, but it will also be less expensive and have more storage capacity than today's PCs. Storage costs will no longer be dominated by hardware prices, but rather by the costs of information management.

More advanced services
“The way we will use the PC will not have changed dramatically, however. Word-processing, web-browsing, and gaming will still be major applications,” says Thomas Mestl, project manager for Technology Outlook 2015. “Even today, the PC is a communication tool, and this is an application area that will see greatly increased use and more advanced services. In particular, wireless network accessibility will drive this aspect of service development. More powerful equipment and cheaper and better quality networks will also increase use of on-line TV and video. Integration of GPS and near field communication technologies enables a range of location-based services, like finding the nearest restaurant.”

Automation and cost reduction
The largest influence of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on daily life is expected to occur with respect to Internet (and mobile phone) penetration around cities in developing countries. The 800 million new PC users in BRIC-countries alone will represent major growth areas for Internet and mobile phone network providers.

A similar development will be seen in the combination of near-field communication technologies and integrated sensor technologies allowing objects to be tracked and ambient conditions monitored. Remote measurement and control will have become increasingly important in industry. ICT will disperse towards new industry areas for automation and cost reduction. The public sector in particular will convert more and more of its paper-based work processes to digital solutions.

Rise in ICT incidents – and ecological impact
“As software complexity grows and as it expands to new areas, there will also be a rise in ICT incidents,” states Thomas Mestl. “It is therefore expected that there will be more focus on the vulnerability of software and ICT infrastructure to software failures or malicious attacks. This means these fields will be even more important for DNV and our ICT-related services.”

The ecological impact of ICT will also become an increasing issue. There are currently 1 billion PCs worldwide (and this number is growing fast). By 2015 they will have been replaced almost twice, resulting in lots of garbage. It is estimated that the manufacturing of equipment is responsible for about 2% of human carbon dioxide emissions each year – a similar figure to the global emissions from the maritime industry.