The world fleet of ice-strengthened ships continues to grow at a phenomenal pace.
The avalanche of recent orders has been triggered by the booming Russian oil industry and red-hot tanker rates. Analysts predict that the trend will continue, with levels of investment in ice class tankers expected to reach new heights over the coming decade.
Speaking at a recent seminar in London, Stephen Gordon of Clarkson Research said the world fleet of ice-strengthened ships continues to grow at a phenomenal pace. In the last year, USD 4.5 billion has been invested in ice class newbuildings, mostly for high-specification, class-1A equivalent tonnage.
In his address, Gordon predicted that increasing production from former Soviet Union states would drive levels of investment in ice class tankers over the coming decade. “High demand, coupled with a rule-driven accelerated phasing out of older single hull ships, pointed to the 1A ice class fleet growing to 14m dwt by 2008,” he said.
Clarkson Research studies have identified 262 Ice Class 1A ships as operational today, equivalent to 4.2m dwt, with 70–80 per cent of them under 20,000dwt. “Our survey reveals that there are 234 vessels with ice strengthening on order. Some 165 are ice class 1A and three are ice class 1A Super,” said Gordon.
Shuttle-tanker network
Gordon also went into detail on Russian export forecasts, as well as maximum winter-ice thickness and ice class requirements for different areas. “There is a debate about how to develop the crude oil network in the Arctic,” he said. “The most likely development looks to shuttle through Murmansk.”
DNV Forum met with Dr Igor V. Stepanov, leading research scientist at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), to hear his views covering the design and operational challenges faced by large vessels in Russian cold-climate operations.
“Based on general commercial considerations, bigger vessels are considered more competitive for a number of new shipborne transportations,” he said, but warned “there is however little experience of such vessels in ice-infested waters.” Dr Stepanov emphasised that the technical challenges can be overcome and that full-scale trials are the most reliable basis for the development of procedures for assessment of ice performance and ice loads for large vessels.
Full-scale trials
Explaining the background of the full-scale trials, Dr Stepanov said the Tanker Ice Trial offshore Sakhalin project, sponsored by ExxonMobil and Sakhalin Energy Investment Company, started in February 2002. The work was carried out by AARI, as the principal contractor, jointly with the Central Marine Design and Research Institute (Russia) and the Science and Technology Corp (USA).
The ships were 106,000 dwt tanker Primorye, with DNV Ice Class 1C, owned by Frisco, and two icebreakers, Krasin and Magadan, operated by Fesco. “Primorye was extensively instrumented; huge amounts of ice-performance and ice-load data have been obtained, and their subsequent analysis allowed introducing appropriate adjustments to ice-performance and ice-loads models to make them applicable to large tankers and LNG carriers,” he explained.
In addition to technical aspects, Dr Stepanov touched upon oil reserves on the Russian Shelf. “Due to the ever more active development of oil and gas deposits on the Russian Shelf, such as Piltun-Astokskoye, Lunskoye and Shtokmanovskoye, Russian authorities are developing requirements for oil and gas deposit facilities. Already in place are requirements for the classification of marine cargo terminals and marine floating oil reservoirs,” he said.
Additional class notations. Wilhelm Magelssen, head of DNV Maritime’s business and marketing department, also shared his views on ‘winterisation’ aspects of operating in cold climates.
“With the opening up of new arctic trade routes that encompass cold climates and heavier weather than before, we predict that ships in the future will most likely be specified with additional class notations to minimise risks and the environmental impact of shipping.”
DNV has several notations which focus on planning and preparation for different functional needs. Ongoing development takes into account additional risks such as how to ensure sufficient firefighting capability in extreme temperatures, and how to cope with new propulsion alternatives in a robust, safe and reliable manner.
Magelssen emphasised: “We must make shipowners and crew recognise the challenges of operating in cold climates and icy conditions. DNV is prepared to support and be a discussion partner for owners, yards and authorities in the further development of shipping activities in cold climates.”
Such communication becomes increasingly important when one realises that one third of all DNV-classed tankers currently on order are specified with ice strengthening, and that this proportion seems to be increasing.