With the 19 May implementation of the Baltic Sea Sulphur Oxide Emission Control Area (SECA) just two short months away, DNV Petroleum Services seriously doubts the shipping community is ready for it.
Many critical questions remain unanswered. For example:
- Will adequate supplies of 1.5% sulphur fuel be available in the SECA and tributary ports, and at what cost premium?
- How will the compliance be monitored? Will every ship be subject to scrutiny?
- What will the penalty be for non-compliance?
- Is 1.5% sulphur content the absolute maximum limit?
- Will there be any quality surprises from new low sulphur fuels, the likes of which have not been seen widely the past 50 years?
Presently, suppliers are meeting demand by preferentially allocating low sulphur residues to marine fuels. While this reallocation will result in SOx emissions going down in the SECA, there will most likely be an offsetting increase somewhere else in the world. Moreover, there are already clear intentions from various authorities to introduce further SECAs.
DNVPS believes sulphur restrictions will go below 1.5%, and we anticipate the low sulphur fuels will have a very large range in density, viscosity and other parameters.
But ready or not, the Baltic Sea SECA is just around the corner.
Date: 2006-03-13