“Our job is to provide the best data possible for people to make their own decisions,” says Jan Tiedemann, liner shipping analyst with AXS-Alphaliner. “You could say that we are like detectives, seeking the latest information on container shipping worldwide. We have information on all ships, their position and deployment at all times, and it is all online readily accessible by our subscribers.”
“Our job is to provide the best data possible for people to make their own decisions,” says Jan Tiedemann, liner shipping analyst with AXS-Alphaliner. “You could say that we are like detectives, seeking the latest information on container shipping worldwide. We have information on all ships, their position and deployment at all times, and it is all online readily accessible by our subscribers.”
But not all the information is reserved for the insiders. You can take a look at their home page where you can access information on all the top 100 liner operators in the world, their fleet size and order book. The worldwide order book is updated every month along with the expected fleet size for the next few years.
Don’t miss the weekly newsletter which you can have sent to your e-mail address. In recent weeks they have covered the current “idle fleet” with number of ships and TEU which you can see in our graphs on page 10. You may have seen it quoted in other media and with a reference to the source, AXS-Alphaliner.
“This is a joint venture between AXS Marine, the service provider, and Alphaliner, the content provider,” continues Jan. “You really need both ingredients, a fast and efficient online service coupled with substantial content.” It is a close-knit team covering the Far East from Singapore, where they have an affiliated office, to the container metropolis of Hamburg, where they have numerous industry contacts. “There are not really all that many of us working on the content, but we rely on an extensive network of business contacts to provide quality information.”
I have taken the trip to sunny Paris for a meeting with AXS-Alphaliner, leaving Oslo with subzero temperatures and two feet of snow, on a Spring day in March.
Jan Tiedemann, a German working in Paris, with a background as “economic geographer” from the University of Hamburg, introduces me to the AXS-Alphaliner database. He is of the young generation, with no fear of IT tools, and proficiently takes me through the various screens on a big LCD monitor. Which ships are on order at the moment? How many cancellations are there? Which ships are being delivered next month? Such questions are answered quickly and the information flashes over the screen.
The customer base is full of brokers and commercial people. All the services and strings are amply covered and you are continuously being updated on changes and new initiatives. It is a world of information at your fingertips.
“It started about nine years ago as a spin-off of Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) in Paris,” says Fabrice Demichel, the CEO of AXS Marine. “We have vertical coverage of all the big segments like dry bulk, tanker, container and offshore. The engine is the IT application that we use to present the information, but content is also important, especially in the container segment. Therefore, the cooperation with Alphaliner.”
AXS Marine is jointly owned by BRS, industry players and venture investors. Its customer base is worldwide, with a strong participation from the big broker companies. The IT tools are web-based, and you are expected to be able to do your work online rather than downloading to your own system. And it works, it is speedy and user-friendly.
My first introduction to AXS-Alphaliner was conducted by Hugo Rousse, the young European sales representative. It was all arranged online. He ‘took over’ my screen and demonstrated the possibilities while explaining verbally how it works, a professional introduction which you can opt for even if you do not consider yourself 100% IT literate. I was sitting in Oslo while Hugo was in Paris.
There are some rough times ahead for all of us in the industry. We need to brace ourselves and make the necessary adjustments because, as we should all remember, we are experiencing the 22nd downturn in the shipping market since the 1700s. Somewhere out there in the future is the 23rd upturn, as Martin Stopford so eloquently put forward.
So when is that going to be? I put the question to the AXS-Alphaliner guys, and that is when they told me “our job is to provide the best data for people to make their own decisions”. Maybe the scenario they have suggested can provide some food for thought. Have a look at it in the ‘The Market – what if’ column on page 10.
The Market – “what if”
The expected growth of the container ship fleet has been known for some time through order book data. Typical figures for the next few years are in the 11–15% bracket depending on cancellations and deferment of deliveries. So the supply side of the equation is fairly well known. The big uncertainty is, of course, related to the demand side. We have been accustomed to continuous growth of around 10%. The situation has changed dramatically and the big question now is – what will the future be like? How long is the downturn going to last?
We cannot tell, but you can make some assumptions and sketch possible scenarios. These are not predictions claiming to be accurate, but rather illustrations of a “what-if” line of reasoning. AXS Alphaliner put forward such a scenario in one of its recent weekly newsletters. You can read about the assumptions it made. We have added an approximate 90% utilisation line. This means that the supply exceeds the demand by some 10%. It is assumed that, with a 90% utilisation scenario, freight rates will increase, inspiring orders for newbuilds.
The graph has curves for various demand alternatives, the blue 10% line being the one we were used to seeing. If the growth rate had continued at 10%, we could have expected new contracts in 1-2Q 2013, using the 90% utilisation postulate. Lower growth rates (we are currently experiencing a decline) will push this further into the future.