The UK stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition. With rapid growth in renewables, increasing electrification, and long-term structural shifts underway, the country is reshaping how it produces, delivers, and consumes energy. Yet despite this momentum, the UK remains offtrack to meet its ambitious 2030, 2035, and 2050 climate commitments.
DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook UK 2026 provides an independent, science-based forecast of the most likely pathway for the UK energy system to 2060.
Access the Energy Transition Outlook UK to learn more about:
The 2030 challenge – clean power is closer, but gas remains essential
- The UK is set to double wind capacity and triple solar by 2030, reaching 107 GW of variable renewables.
- However, the report shows that the UK will still rely on unabated gas for 15% of electricity generation in 2030. Momentum is strong - just not yet at the scale government targets require.
The 2035 gap - emissions cuts by 2035 will fall short of the UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target
- Instead of the required 60% reduction in emissions from today’s levels, the UK is on track for only 33% reduction by 2035.
- Buildings and transport remain the biggest blockers, with two thirds of UK homes still using gas boilers in 2035, and more than half the cars on the road still fossil-fuelled.
The long term opportunity – a more affordable, resilient, low-carbon system
- The report forecasts that the UK’s annual emissions will still amount to 130 MtCO₂e in 2050, a significant 84% reduction against 1990 levels, but not reaching the net zero target.
- Despite this forecast, the long-term outlook is structurally positive. Energy demand will fall by a quarter by 2050 as a result of efficiency gains from electrification, and the UK’s primary energy supply will progressively shift away from fossil fuels to low carbon sources, with fossil fuels representing 15% of primary energy by 2060 (versus 75% today).
- Decarbonization of the UK economy is affordable and will, by 2050, reduce average household energy bills by 20% relative to 2021 levels.
